Beth Osyk and I are presenting our paper at SAE WCX today on how to argue sufficient road test safety for self-driving car technology.
See below slideshare or follow this link for presentation slides.
Preprint of paper here:
Autonomous vehicle (AV) developers test extensively on
public roads, potentially putting other road users at risk. A
safety case for human supervision of road testing could improve
safety transparency. A credible safety case should include: (1)
the supervisor must be alert and able to respond to an autonomy
failure in a timely manner, (2) the supervisor must adequately
manage autonomy failures, and (3) the autonomy failure profile
must be compatible with effective human supervision.\
Human supervisors and autonomous test vehicles form a
combined human-autonomy system, with the total rate of
observed failures including the product of the autonomy failure
rate and the rate of unsuccessful failure mitigation by the
supervisor. A difficulty is that human ability varies in a
nonlinear way with autonomy failure rates, counter-intuitively
making it more difficult for a supervisor to assure safety as
autonomy maturity improves. Thus, road testing safety cases
must account for both the expected failures during testing and
the practical effectiveness of human supervisors given that
failure profile. This paper outlines a high level safety case that
identifies key factors for credibly arguing the safety of an onroad AV test program. A similar approach could be used to
analyze potential safety issues for high capability semiautonomous production vehicles.
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